President-elect Joe Biden has committed to rebuilding a multilateral agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear program, but recent actions by Tehran have raised the stakes of negotiations and introduced new obstacles to reinstating the nuclear deal.
The Associated Press reported Friday that Iran has begun some sort of construction at its underground nuclear facility at Fordo, though it is unclear what is being built. Work is also underway at its Natanz nuclear facility.
Satellite images suggest the construction at Fordo began in September northwest of the main facility near support and research buildings. Iran had halted enriching uranium at the site under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but enrichment resumed after the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement.
President Donald Trump, who derided the JCPOA as the worst deal ever made during his 2016 campaign, formally withdrew from the pact in 2018, reimposing economic sanctions that had been lifted. His administration has since leveled more sanctions as part of a “maximum pressure” campaign to force Iran to negotiate a more restrictive agreement.
“He wanted to humiliate the Iranians to the negotiating table,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute.
Those sanctions have taken a severe toll on Iran’s economy, devaluing its currency, driving up inflation, and cutting off key exports. They have not pushed Iran to accept a tougher deal, nor have they discouraged the regime in Tehran from supporting terrorism and engaging in other destabilizing activities in the Middle East.
Since the U.S. put sanctions back in place, Iran has increasingly flaunted its commitments to the deal, accelerating its nuclear research. Biden campaigned on salvaging the JCPOA, a central element of the Obama-Biden administration’s foreign policy legacy, and working with allies to constrain Iran’s behavior.
Iran is currently believed to be enriching uranium up to 4.5%, above the nuclear deal’s limit of 3.67%. The country’s parliament recently passed a bill that would require the removal of international nuclear inspectors, allow enrichment up to 20%, and require the construction of a new heavy water reactor and a lab for making bomb components from uranium.
The passage of the law followed the killing of a top Iranian nuclear scientist last month, which Iran has blamed on Israel. Depending on how quickly President Hassan Rouhani, who opposed the bill, implements it, it could present an early foreign policy crisis for the Biden administration.
According to The Associated Press, experts estimate Iran now has enough uranium stockpiled to build at least two nuclear weapons. Iran currently has about 2.4 tons of uranium, more than 10 times what it was allowed under the JCPOA, but about one-third of what it had before the agreement was signed.
Experts at the Arms Control Association say Iran’s current breakout time to produce weapons-grade nuclear material is three to four months, down from 12 months under full implementation of the JCPOA. It could take another 18 months to pair weapons-grade material with an explosives package.
“The unintended consequence of pulling out the JCPOA was accelerating Iran’s movement toward a nuclear weapon,” said William Lawrence, a professor of international affairs at American University and former U.S. diplomat.
According to Vatanka, Iran’s recent moves appear to be “political posturing” aimed at framing future negotiations with a Biden administration. Escalating their nuclear program gives them something they can de-escalate in exchange for sanctions relief without broaching more contentious issues like their ballistic missile program.
“They’re trying to set up something to give away,” Vatanka said.
Iranian leaders maintain they are willing to step back from the brink if the U.S. meets its existing obligations. In a public address Wednesday mostly focused on avenging the assassination of Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani by the U.S. in January, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called for lifting sanctions.
“If the sanctions can be lifted in a correct, wise, Iranian-Islamic, and dignified manner, this should be done,” Khamenei said. “But our main focus should be on neutralizing the sanctions, and the initiative for this is in your hands."
Rouhani echoed that sentiment Thursday, expressing confidence the incoming Biden administration would ease sanctions and revive the nuclear agreement.
“I have no doubt that the heroic national resistance of Iran is going to compel the future U.S. government to bow... and the sanctions will be broken,” Rouhani said.
Rouhani said earlier this week that Iran would be willing to revert to compliance with the agreement within an hour if the U.S. complied with its commitments. However, he also rejected the notion of making changes to the deal or broadening it to address issues beyond the nuclear program.
What happens next depends largely on Biden’s strategy, Vatanka said. Biden could simply seek to roll back the provocations on both sides on the nuclear issue, or he could try to eke out additional concessions from Iran before offering sanctions relief. A more tentative approach might create a stickier diplomatic situation than the new administration wants to deal with on top of multiple domestic crises.
“He wants a quick win,” Vatanka said.
In a recent interview with New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, Biden reasserted his commitment to rejoining the nuclear agreement if Iran reverses its violations of the deal. He views that as a starting point for further talks to extend restrictions on nuclear activity and address Iran’s other disruptive behavior in the region.
Biden acknowledged reaching a new agreement to curtail Iran’s destabilizing influence would be difficult, particularly after leverage created by Trump’s sanctions is eased. However, he argued getting Iran’s nuclear program in check needs to be the top priority.
“The last goddamn thing we need in that part of the world is a buildup of nuclear capability...,” Biden said. “In consultation with our allies and partners, we’re going to engage in negotiations and follow-on agreements to tighten and lengthen Iran’s nuclear constraints, as well as address the missile program.”
Biden’s incoming national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told The Wall Street Journal earlier this week that the president-elect’s team believes bringing Iran back into compliance with the deal would “put time back on the clock” to address other problems. They also see that as a key step in rebuilding an international coalition that fractured under Trump.
Returning to the nuclear deal might be more complicated than leaders on either side have made it sound, though. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told Reuters Thursday a new agreement would need to be negotiated to address the steps Iran has taken in violation of the original pact.
"I cannot imagine that they are going simply to say, 'We are back to square one,' because square one is no longer there," he said.
Iranian leaders promptly dismissed Grossi’s remarks, with Tehran’s ambassador to the IAEA tweeting that any assessment of how the agreement is implemented is “absolutely beyond the mandate of the agency.” Experts expect a compliance-for-compliance framework could be worked out fairly easily.
“The incoming Biden administration can begin easing sanctions on day one,” said Samuel Hickey, a research analyst at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. “At the same time, Tehran can begin to take steps to comply with the nuclear deal’s stringent restrictions. Every deviation of Tehran’s from the nuclear deal can be undone.”
A resuscitated JCPOA would have the same shortcomings as the original pact. By design, it only dealt with the nuclear program, and most of its provisions would sunset within the next decade. Still, Lawrence argued that would be preferable to the current status quo.
“It’s better to be in some sort of semblance of a vestige of the JCPOA than to plow ahead with Iran developing a nuclear weapon at faster and faster speeds,” he said.
Tensions between Tehran and the West have been rising on other fronts, as well. European officials, U.S. diplomats, and Biden’s future national security adviser denounced the execution of an Iranian dissident journalist last week.
The U.S. also imposed new sanctions on two Iranian intelligence officers over the abduction and presumed death of Robert Levinson, a retired FBI agent who disappeared in 2007. Levinson was last seen alive in a hostage video nearly a decade ago, and Iran has never acknowledged any role in his disappearance.
“There should be no agreement negotiated with Iran ever again that doesn't free the Americans who are unjustly detained in that country,” a senior Trump State Department official said on a briefing call Monday. “We all expect a negotiation next year. That negotiation must include the return home of all the Americans unjustly detained in that country.”
A series of agreements brokered by the Trump administration normalizing relations between Israel and several of its Arab neighbors might weaken Tehran’s bargaining position. Governments in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan forging stronger relationships with Israel could weaken Iran’s standing in the region.
Potentially further complicating long-term prospects for diplomacy, Iran is set to hold a presidential election next June. After hardliners made gains in parliamentary elections earlier this year, Rouhani’s replacement could prove less amenable to negotiations with the U.S.
Biden may face resistance, as well, both from Republicans and from some members of his own party who opposed the 2015 agreement. For a president who promised to unify and heal divisions, navigating Iran policy might prove precarious.
“The path back to compliance will be politically and technically complex, but far easier than the process to create the Iran Deal back in 2015,” Hickey said. “The biggest obstacles are political spoilers in both the United States and Iran, so both governments will tread lightly to avoid those spoilers.”
While unprecedented sanctions have hobbled Iran’s economy, the regime has found new ways to circumvent restrictions and export oil in recent months. The Wall Street Journal reported oil exports have roughly doubled since hitting a low point earlier this year, with China and Venezuela as top customers.
Like presidents before him who have struggled with Iran, Lawrence said Trump’s attempts to weaken Tehran have had mixed results. Sanctions and troop withdrawals strengthened Iran’s position in Iraq and Syria, pressed it into a closer relationship with China and Russia, and spurred bolder attacks in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, but the policies undoubtedly did some damage.
“Maximum pressure did hurt the Iranian economy,” Lawrence said. “Maximum pressure did make European allies very wary of working with Iran. Maximum pressure made it very hard for international businesses to work with Iran.”
Whatever successes Trump has had, though, some say it is clear the sanctions campaign failed with regard to Iran’s nuclear program. When Biden takes office as president, Iran’s nuclear ambitions will be more advanced than they were when he left the vice presidency four years ago.
“In a nutshell, the Iranians are closer to a nuclear weapon today than they were on the day President Trump was sworn into office,” Hickey said. “The JCPOA was blocking all of Iran’s pathways to a nuclear weapons capability, but one year after President Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, Iran began incrementally breaching its limits in order to increase its political leverage for future talks.”